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THE GLOBAL CLIMATE
2001
–
2010
A DECADE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES
WMO-No. 1103
THE GLOBAL CLIMATE
2001–2010
A DECADE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES
WMO-No. 1103
© World Meteorological Organization, 2013
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Contents
Page
Page
Foreword
6
4.4.4
Droughts
Case study D1
Long-term drought in Australia
Introduction
8
Case study D2
Long-term drought in the Amazon Basin
Case study D3
Long-term drought in East Africa
Chapter 1
Temperature assessment
10
4.5
Severe storms
66
1.1
Global temperature
4.5.1
Tropical cyclones
Feature article
Assessment of global temperature based on reanalysis data
Case study E1
Hurricane
Katrina
1.2
Regional temperature
Case study E2
Cyclone
Nargis
1.3
Temperature assessment at country level
4.5.2
Extra-tropical cyclones and storms
1.3.1
General result
Case study F
Extra-tropical windstorms in Europe
1.3.2
Analysis by continent
Case study G
Sand- and duststorms in the Arabian Peninsula
4.5.3
Tornadoes
Chapter 2
Precipitation assessment
18
2.1
Global precipitation
Chapter 5
Climate and composition of the atmosphere
82
2.2
Regional precipitation
5.1
Greenhouse gases and climate
2.2.1
Decadal assessment summary
5.2
Stratospheric ozone depletion
2.2.2
Annual assessment summary
5.3
Climate and air quality
Chapter 3
Large-scale climate variability modes and
22
Chapter 6
Cryosphere and sea level
90
related oscillation indices
6.1
Cryosphere
Overview
6.1.1
Sea ice
3.1
El Niño/Southern Oscillation
6.1.2
Ice sheets
3.2
Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation
6.1.3
Glaciers
3.3
Indian Ocean Dipole
6.1.4
Snow cover
3.4
Southern Annular Mode
6.1.5
Permafrost and frozen ground
Feature article
Effects of unseasonably mild conditions on the ice-road
Chapter 4
Extreme events
27
network and traditional lifestyles in northern Canada
4.1
Impact assessment
6.2
Sea level
4.1.1
Data and methodology
4.1.2
Comparison of 2001–2010 with 1991–2000
Conclusion
100
4.1.3
Regional analysis
4.1.4
Other aspects of impacts
Acknowledgements
103
4.2
Exposure, vulnerability and attribution of climate extremes
32
4.2.1
Increased exposure and vulnerability to hydrometeorological events
References and bibliography
104
4.2.2
Attribution of climate extremes
4.3
Summary statistics from country data
34
Acronyms
108
4.3.1
Most reported extreme events
4.3.2
Country absolute records
Glossary
110
4.4
Worldwide summary of extreme climate conditions
37
4.4.1
Heatwaves and abnormally high temperature conditions
Annex 1. Source and methodology for global surface-temperature assessment
Annex 2. Country survey – general information
Annex 3. Country data submission to the WMO survey
112
114
115
Case study A1
Extreme heatwaves in Europe in 2003
Case study A2
Extreme heatwave in the Russian Federation in 2010
Case study A3
Exceptional heatwaves in Australia in 2009
4.4.2
Cold waves, abnormally low temperature conditions and snowstorms
Case Study B
Extreme winter conditions over the northern hemisphere (2009/2010)
4.4.3
Flooding and heavy precipitation
Case study C
The severe Pakistan looding of 2010
4
5
Foreword
The goal of the WMO Climate System Monitoring is to deliver timely, authoritative
information on the status of the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere at sub-
monthly, monthly, annual and decadal to multi-decadal timescales. WMO Members
have been collaborating on Climate System Monitoring over several decades to achieve
improved monitoring and understanding of climate variability and climate change and
related extreme weather and climate events.
Carbon-dioxide concentration had reached an average global value of 389 parts per million
by the end of the decade, the highest value recorded for at least the past 10 000 years.
The dramatic and continuing sea-ice decline in the Arctic is one of the most prominent
features of the changing state of the climate during the decade with the ive lowest
minimum sea-ice extents at the end of the melting season, all recorded in the second
half of the decade, with the record being set in 2007.
Nowadays, with modern communication technology, WMO Members issue timely and
regular reports on their websites, thus marking a fundamental shift in the way monitoring
products are disseminated. These products have become crucial inputs to the various decision-
making processes of user communities, in addition to their traditional scientiic purpose.
I am conident that this publication will provide added value to the great collective
efforts by Members to deliver useful climate services to governments, user communities,
research, academia and the public at large.
Improved Climate System Monitoring today allows a quick analysis of monthly and
seasonal climate drivers, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation
and the North Atlantic Oscillation, among others. This information is increasingly being
used to help foresee potential positive or negative impacts on sector activities such as
agriculture, water resources, health, energy, tourism and isheries.
I wish to thank all the Members that responded to the WMO survey with the aim of
collecting climate data and information on the decade 2001–2010. I also extend WMO’s
thanks to the international centres which continuously maintain climate datasets to the
highest possible scientiic standards, as well as their useful global climate monitoring,
the results of which are continuously updated on their websites.
In addition to the WMO Annual Statements on the Status of the Global Climate, which
have been produced regularly since 1993, WMO produced, in 2003, a six-year climate
review covering the period 1996–2001 with more comprehensive data and information.
The main content of the review was based on the annual State of the Climate reports
which are published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-National
Climatic Data Center of the United States of America in the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society. In 2005, the WMO Commission for Climatology recommended
discontinuing the multi-year climate review and agreed instead to publish a ive-year
climate summary to complement the WMO annual statements.
Last but not least, I would like to thank the many experts from various nations and
organizations and the UN partners that participated in the preparation of this publication.
This publication covers the irst decade of the 21st century and aims at providing a decadal
perspective of climate variability and change and its observed impacts on different sectors.
(Michel Jarraud)
Secretary-General
The decade 2001–2010 was characterized by a record global temperature increase since
suficiently comprehensive global surface temperature measurements began in 1850.
For global land-surface air temperatures, as well as for ocean-surface temperatures, this
decade was the warmest on record.
Despite interannual variations in the global temperature, which are driven by large-scale
variability in the ocean and the atmosphere, the underlying long-term trend is clearly
an upward one.
Except for the year 2008, the nine remaining years of the decade, together with 1998,
constitute the top 10 warmest years on record since 1850. The decade was also the
warmest on land, over the oceans and in the northern and southern hemispheres when
taken separately in the assessment.
Flooding was reported by the great majority of countries as the most signiicant extreme
event they faced during the decade, followed by droughts, lash loods, heavy rainfall,
heatwaves and severe storms. Twelve studies are provided in this report to illustrate
a few of the most signiicant extreme weather and climate events which caused high
human and economic losses.
6
7
Introduction
The international collaboration underpinning Climate System Monitoring (CSM) involves
monitoring the present state of the global atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial climate
system. The monitoring covers many aspects of the atmospheric and ocean conditions,
cryosphere, trace gases, etc. Data sources include in situ and space-based observations
collected through various WMO and co-sponsored programmes and numerical
objective analyses. These observations and analyses provide useful information for the
interpretation of the present climate, including extreme events and long-term trends.
analysis was performed on data provided by the 139 countries which responded to
the WMO survey.
The second chapter deals with precipitation. Global and decadal averages were used
to depict general features decade by decade. A description of regional precipitation
was also conducted with focus on the main anomaly features. Precipitation analysis is
based on the NOAA-NCDC datasets and those of the Global Precipitation Climatology
Centre (GPCC), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Germany. A global precipitation index
provided by NOAA-NCDC based on global averaged precipitation analysis was used for
performing an interdecadal comparison.
WMO CSM uses essential climate variables (ECVs) as deined by the Global Climate
Observing System (GCOS). Some 50 ECVs have been identiied as feasible for global
observation. The present report incorporates assessments of the status of the global
climate and the observed extremes detected using ECV data and products, including
air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, greenhouse-gas concentration (atmospheric
ECVs); snow cover, ire disturbance and river discharge (terrestrial ECVs); as well as
sea ice, ice sheet and sea level (oceanographic ECVs).
Chapter 3 describes the main atmospheric and oceanic oscillations which triggered major
observed climate variability patterns on seasonal-to-interannual timescales, including
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).
Analysis of indices pertaining to these oscillations is illustrated through time-series plots.
Climate assessment on the decadal timescale offers the necessary data and information
to enable robust understanding of the varying and changing climate and places climate
monitoring in an extended historical time frame, such as is not possible with the
annual climate monitoring. The Global Climate 2001–2010 is a new WMO publication
summarizing the state of the climate for the decade 2001–2010 and its assessment in
the historical context. It complements the annual WMO statements on the status of the
global climate and the more comprehensive annual report State of the Climate, which
is published regularly in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS)
by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-National Climate Date Center
(NOAA-NCDC) of the United Sates of America (USA).
Chapter 4 focuses on extreme events. It starts with an impact assessment based on
data provided by CRED, UNISDR, the United Nations Ofice for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET,
US Agency for International Development) and Munich Reinsurance (MunichRe), as well
as data collected by WMO from its Members and from available publications. It includes
a section summarizing the occurrence in the past ive decades of country absolute
records of daily maximum and minimum temperature and 24-hour total precipitation.
It also includes global maps referencing the location and timing of major heatwaves,
cold waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and tropical cyclones, and a table describing
the occurrence of major extreme events year by year. The second part of this chapter
addresses severe storms, focusing mainly on tropical cyclones, with statistical data
describing their occurrence at the decadal scale, globally and in the various ocean basins.
A section on tornadoes in the USA is included, as well as 12 case studies focusing on
some major observed extreme weather and climate events and the observed impacts
on lives and goods.
The data and information used in this publication are based on international datasets
that are maintained by advanced climate data, monitoring and research centres which
collaborate with WMO and the data and climate information collected directly from
Member countries through a special WMO survey. The methodologies used for analysing
the data and describing the results in various chapters were reviewed during a special
two-day expert review meeting which was hosted by the University of Rovira i Virgili,
Tortosa, Spain, 22-23 November 2011. Subsequent reviews were undertaken with other
individual experts. Another review meeting focusing on impact data was undertaken with
the participation of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED),
the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and
the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) during a two-day
expert meeting hosted by WMO in Geneva, Switzerland, 3–4 September 2012.
Chapter 5 describes the connection between climate and atmosphere composition. The
data used are provided by the measurement facilities of the WMO Global Atmosphere
Watch (GAW).
Chapter 6 provides an analysis of the cryosphere and sea level. It describes the observed
changes in these two critical components of the climate system, which are the most
evident response variables to global warming. Trend analysis depicts the observed
dramatic changes in Arctic sea ice, as well as the clear upward trend of sea level.
The irst chapter focuses on surface temperature at global, regional and national scales,
including analysis of temperature anomalies and trends. Interdecadal and interregional
comparative analysis was performed and depicted using maps, charts and tables.
The global temperature analysis is based on three international datasets maintained
by the Met Ofice Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East
Anglia, in the United Kingdom (HadCRU); NOAA-NCDC; the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration-Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA-GISS) in the USA
and reanalysis data maintained by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF). The assessment of national temperature anomalies is based on
the data collected directly from Members through the WMO survey. A descriptive
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